|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]杨建民,权勃,张文童,等.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的三维地质模型不确定性分析[J].断块油气田,2020,27(03):309-312.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt202003008]
 YANG Jianmin,QUAN Bo,ZHANG Wentong,et al.Uncertainty evaluation of 3D geology model based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2020,27(03):309-312.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt202003008]
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基于蒙特卡洛模拟的三维地质模型不确定性分析(PDF)
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《断块油气田》[ISSN:1005-8907/CN:41-1219/TE]

卷:
27
期数:
2020年03
页码:
309-312
栏目:
地质勘探
出版日期:
2020-05-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Uncertainty evaluation of 3D geology model based on Monte Carlo simulation
文章编号:
8
作者:
杨建民权勃张文童王鹏飞叶小明
中海石油(中国)有限公司天津分公司渤海石油研究院,天津 300459
Author(s):
102 102); font-family: Arial Verdana sans-serif; font-size: 12px; background-color: rgb(255 255 255);">YANG Jianmin QUAN Bo ZHANG Wentong WANG Pengfei YE Xiaoming
Bohai Oilfield Research Institute, Tianjin Branch of CNOOC Ltd., Tianjin 300459, China
关键词:
三维地质模型不确定性分析蒙特卡洛模拟响应曲面风险预测
Keywords:
D geology model uncertainty evaluation Monte Carlo simulation response surface risk prediction
分类号:
TE155;TE32+1
DOI:
10.6056/dkyqt202003008
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
在海上油田前期开发阶段钻井资料少,且中深层地震资料品质差,造成基于随机建模方法的地质模型存在较大的不确定性,如何快速准确地对地质模型开展不确定性分析是地质建模研究的难点。文中以地质储量和可采储量作为不确定性分析的定量指标,通过地质模型分析不确定性变量存在的原因和不确定性范围;同时,综合正交试验设计、响应曲面拟合的方法,在随机建模的基础上,应用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算模型地质储量和可采储量的概率分布,定量分析模型的不确定性,并排队优选出反映油藏风险和潜力的高、中、低3套模型,为油田的开发决策提供定量依据。
Abstract:
In the early stage of offshore oilfield development, there were little drilling data, and the quality of seismic data in the middle and deep strata was poor, which resulted in great uncertainty of geological model based on stochastic modeling method. So how to carry out uncertainty analysis of geological model quickly and accurately is the difficulty of research. In this study, geological reserves and recoverable reserves are proposed as quantitative indicators of uncertainty analysis. By analyzing the causes and range of uncertainties in geological models, the orthogonal experimental design and response surface fitting methods are synthesized. Based on random modeling, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the probabilistic distribution of geologic reserves and recoverable reserves. The uncertainty of this model is analyzed quantitatively, and three sets of models reflecting reservoir risk and potential are queued up to provide quantitative basis for oilfield development decision.

参考文献/References:

相似文献/References:

[1]胜亚楠,管志川,许玉强,等.井壁稳定问题的不确定性分析方法探讨[J].断块油气田,2017,24(06):847.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt201706025]
 SHENG Yanan,GUAN Zhichuan,XU Yuqiang,et al.Discussion on uncertainty analysis method for wellbore stability[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2017,24(03):847.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt201706025]
[2]覃利娟.概率法在油气储量不确定性分析中的应用[J].断块油气田,2019,26(06):723.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt201906009]
 QIN Lijuan.Application of probability method to uncertainty analysis of oil and gas reserves[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2019,26(03):723.[doi:10.6056/dkyqt201906009]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-11-15;改回日期:2020-03-20。
第一作者:杨建民,男,1987年生,工程师,主要研究方向为油气田开发地质。E-mail:yangjm15@cnooc.com.cn。
基金项目: 国家科技重大专项“渤海油田高效开发示范工程”(2016ZX05058)
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-05-21